If a recent trip to the grocery store puts you in shock, then brace yourself with something sturdy. The prices coming as a result of President Trump inciting a trade war might knock you out.
Prices for items such as seafood, coffee, wine, nuts and cheese are all expected to rise. And if you’re tempted to grab a candy bar while you’re in the checkout line, you’ll probably have to pay more for that as well.
Food industry website supermarketguru.com, estimates almost half of the products in a supermarket — about 40,000 products — will be affected by tariffs, whether it’s the entire product or just an ingredient.
It’s impossible yet to know how much the tariffs will affect prices. However, the 10% tariff as a minimum on any country and higher “reciprocal tariffs” on other nations, could provide some clues.
Here are 10 most common grocery items you can expect to see a price increase in. (The tariff rates by county are in parentheses).
Seafood
Some top sources: Chile (10%), India (26%), Indonesia (32%) and Vietnam (46%) are the largest suppliers, according to the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
This category is likely to take a big hit because the U.S. imports the majority of its seafood — up to 85% according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — and several countries that supply fish and shellfish to the U.S. have been among the hardest hit by the tariffs.
Coffee
Top sources: Brazil (10%) and Colombia (10%), according to USDA.
Coffee prices are already higher than ever and tariff prices will continue that upward trend.
The U.S. is the world’s largest importer of coffee, with about 80% of U.S. roasted imports coming from Latin America – predominately Brazil and Colombia.
Fruit
Some top sources: Guatemala (10%), Costa Rica (10%) and Peru (10%)
Guatemala and Costa Rica are leading exporters of bananas to the U.S. Guatemala also ships melons, plantains and papayas, according to USDA, while Costa Rica exports pineapples, avocados and mangoes.
Because these products don’t have a long shelf life, Americans should begin to see the impact on prices pretty soon.
Alcohol
Top sources for wine: the European Union — France, Italy and Spain (20%). New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%), according to USDA.
Top sources for beer: Mexico (25%), the Netherlands and Ireland (both with the EU’s 20% tariff) and Canada (25%)
In addition, beer – and any other items sold in cans – will be further impacted by tariffs on China and other aluminum producers.
Rice
Top sources: Thailand (36%) and India (26%), according to USDA.
Although most rice sold in the U.S. is domestically produced, nearly a third is imported, mainly jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India.
Cheese
Top sources: Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands (all subject to 20% EU tariff).
Kraft and most store brand cheeses are made in America from milk sourced from American dairies. However, if you have a taste for fine imported cheese, such as Parmigiano-Reggiano, brie and Gouda, look for these prices to rise.
Nuts
Top sources: Vietnam (46%), Côte d’Ivoire (21%), Brazil (10%), Thailand (36%), according to the World Bank.
Cashews, pecans and macadamia nuts are likely to see large price increases.
Chocolate
Top source: Côte d’Ivoire (21%) and Ecuador (10%), according to USDA.
The Hershey Company, one of the largest U.S. importers of cocoa beans, says it sources from Brazil, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Ghana, Indonesia, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea and Peru.
The tariffs come on top of serious increases in cocoa beans for the past two or three years due to weather and the political climate in Africa.
Olive Oil
Top sources: European Union (20%), particularly Spain, Italy and Greece.
Olive oil prices have been rising quickly and can be expected to rise even higher.
Beef
Some top sources: New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%), according to USDA.
Although 90% of beef consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced, tariffs will likely add to existing price pressures. The cost of ground beef for consumers, for example, is already at historic highs and according to the USDA, the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since 1951.