It’s been years in the making, and now the long-awaited film about Michael Jackson is finally arriving in theaters this Friday — with expectations that go far beyond a typical opening weekend.
The film, Michael, has been in development in various forms for more than a decade, gaining real traction around 2019 before moving into full production more recently. Backed by a reported budget of around $150 million, it’s one of the most expensive music biopics ever made — a signal that studios see it as more than just a niche release.
That investment is tied to what many expect at the box office.
Industry tracking has suggested a strong opening weekend, potentially in the $40–$60 million range, which could put the film in position to compete for — or even claim — the No. 1 spot depending on what else is in theaters. Much will depend on word of mouth, but the global appeal of Jackson’s name gives the film a built-in audience that few biopics can match.
Part of that confidence comes from who’s behind — and supporting — the film.
The project has been made with the full cooperation of the Jackson family and estate, giving filmmakers access to Jackson’s music catalog and personal story. That involvement has helped shape the film’s direction and tone, though it also raises questions for some observers about how certain parts of Jackson’s life are portrayed.
And that leads to one of the biggest questions heading into opening weekend: how much of his life does the film actually cover?
Filmmakers have said the movie follows Jackson from his childhood with the Jackson 5 through his rise to global superstardom. It does extend into his later years, but early reports suggest the film does not fully center on the events immediately surrounding his death in 2009, instead focusing more on the journey that made him a cultural force.
At the center of that story is Jaafar Jackson — and his connection to the role runs deep. Jaafar is the son of Jermaine Jackson, Michael’s older brother and a fellow member of the Jackson 5.
Now in his late 20s, Jaafar is both a singer and performer in his own right. Before landing this role, he had already begun building a music career, releasing his own songs while drawing comparisons to his famous uncle for his vocal tone and stage presence. Those who have seen early footage say that familiarity shows up on screen — not just in how he moves, but in how he carries the emotional weight of the role.
Director Antoine Fuqua has emphasized that the performance goes beyond imitation, suggesting Jaafar brings a personal understanding to the role that outsiders simply couldn’t replicate.
The film runs about 2 hours and 30 minutes, putting it in line with other major music biopics that attempt to cover decades of a performer’s life. Ray, the story of Ray Charles, ran just over two and a half hours. Elvis stretched even longer, nearing 2 hours and 40 minutes, while Respect came in slightly shorter.
In each case, the length reflects the same challenge: how do you fit a once-in-a-generation life into a single film?
That question may be even more complicated with Michael Jackson.
Early reactions suggest the film doesn’t shy away from showing both the brilliance and the pressure that defined his life. Some who have seen previews describe it as “ambitious” and “emotionally layered,” pointing to the balance between spectacle and personal struggle.
Still, there are lingering questions about how deeply the film explores the more controversial parts of Jackson’s story — an issue that continues to shape how his legacy is viewed.
What does seem certain is that the music will be front and center. With access to Jackson’s catalog, the film recreates many of the performances and moments that made him a global icon — from his early Motown days to the height of his solo career.
For audiences, that may ultimately be the draw.
Because beyond the headlines, beyond the debate, there’s still the music — and the impact of an artist whose influence continues to shape generations.
