The U.S. birthrate has been falling steadily since 2007, when it peaked before the Great Recession. It is now down more than 25% — a historic decline that, if it continues much further, could create long-term economic challenges as fewer workers support an aging population.
The shift is being driven in large part by young women like Rose Paz.
Paz, 22, grew up in Salt Lake City as the oldest of three children. Her mother, an immigrant from Mexico, had her at 16. With her parents working long hours as a waitress and a cook, Paz often cared for her younger siblings, skipping sleepovers and birthday parties.
Now studying marketing for her bachelor’s degree, she has a serious boyfriend but does not want children anytime soon.
“I want to be financially stable and in a place I can call my own,” she said. “I saw my parents get stressed over money, and I don’t want my kid to experience that.”
Not long ago, women in their early 20s — especially those without college degrees — were among the most likely to have children. Today, they are a key reason the national birthrate continues to fall.
Who Is Driving The Decline?
Between 2007 and 2019, declining birthrates among Hispanic, white and Black teenagers accounted for 37% of the overall national decline, according to research by economist Melissa Kearney and her colleagues at the University of Notre Dame.
White women ages 20 to 24 without a bachelor’s degree were another major contributor. Together, those groups made up more than half of the total drop.
The trend challenges the perception that falling birthrates are driven mainly by highly educated, career-focused women delaying motherhood.
Birthrates among women ages 22 to 24 who have completed a bachelor’s degree have declined by about 20% since 2007. But the drop among women ages 20 to 24 with only a high school diploma has been far steeper — about 50%.
Teen births have fallen dramatically, down roughly 70% since 2007. Births to unmarried women have dropped by about 30%.
For decades, teenage and single motherhood was framed as a social crisis, blamed for poor outcomes for both mothers and children. Today, some researchers see the decline as a sign of progress.
“We spent decades shaming women for having kids under the wrong circumstances,” said Karen Benjamin Guzzo, a demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “Now they are holding up their end of the bargain.”
Politics And Concerns About The Future
The declining birthrate has sparked concern in some political circles. A recent Heritage Foundation report warned that when a nation fails to preserve the family, it risks broader societal decline.
Roger Severino, vice president for economic and domestic policy at Heritage, said he is not advocating “more births at all costs,” but argues that policymakers should make it easier for Americans to marry and have children earlier. Otherwise, he warned, the country could face “demographic collapse and societal breakdown.”
Demographers acknowledge that persistently low birthrates can present economic challenges. Fewer births mean fewer future workers to support an aging population. Immigration can offset population declines, but that too has become politically contentious.
Still, many scholars argue the story is more nuanced than simple decline.
Adulthood, Redefined
Researchers point to several factors behind the shift. Access to reliable contraception, including implants and I.U.D.s, has increased. The rise of smartphones and digital life has reshaped social interaction, potentially delaying relationships and family formation.
Just as significant is a cultural shift in how young people define adulthood.
The median age of first marriage has climbed to 30 for men and 29 for women — about three years older than in 2007. Many young women say they want degrees, stable jobs and financial security before starting families. Many also speak candidly about watching their mothers struggle.
For the first time, nearly half of 30-year-old women in the United States are childless. In 1976, only 18% were.
For women like Paz, delaying motherhood is not about rejecting family. It is about timing — and about building a foundation first.
“I just want to be ready,” she said.
And increasingly, young women across the country are making the same calculation.