Shoppers across Kansas and Missouri face empty egg shelves and purchase limits as prices soar to unprecedented levels, with little relief in sight.
Egg prices hit an all-time average high of $4.95 per dozen in February. The USDA now predicts costs will rise 41.1% this year, potentially pushing an 18-count carton as high as $11.69, according to government data.
The Culprit
A persistent bird flu outbreak that began in 2022 has intensified in recent months, forcing the slaughter of millions of egg-laying hens.
It’s become a “major” threat to commercial and backyard flocks in the United States, hitting egg-laying hens the hardest, according to the National Chicken Council. These hens account for more than 77% of the more than 162 million poultry affected by the virus since the outbreak began.
The U.S. has successfully dealt with sporadic outbreaks before, said Dr. Matt Koci, a professor in the Prestage Department of Poultry Science at North Carolina State University who specializes in immunology. Although poultry vaccines were studied, biosecurity measures and culling flocks with sick birds have been the strategy to take on the virus.
In the past, cases among chickens typically flared up only when wild birds, who can be carriers of the disease, would migrate through the US, Koci said. After they had flown on, case counts would fall to nothing.
Now, though, there is so much virus in circulation that it’s been turning up in resident birds and spilled over into other animals like cows, cats and even dolphins.
Many scientists believe it is unlikely that the virus will ever disappear completely from the U.S. again.
“Now that it’s always here, kind of kicking around in the environment, we are seeing these little brush fires of cases popping up all the time,” Koci said. “We were hoping it was a fluke, but this definitely seems like the new normal.”
‘A Horrible Way to Die’
When a domestic chicken, turkey or duck gets sick, it’s devastating for the flock. Wild birds can live with the virus, but commercial flocks often cannot.
“It depends on the strain, but within 48 hours, a farmer may go from seeing a few dead birds to half his flock, and certainly, within three to five days, they’re all dead,” Koci said. Healthy members of the flock are often culled to help stop the spread. “That’s the reason we stamp it out. We’re trying to kill them before the virus does, because it’s a horrible way to die, and that helps us contain it.”
In the past 30 days alone, bird flu has been confirmed in 134 commercial and backyard flocks in the U.S., affecting 18.91 million birds, according to the USDA.
Some medications are in development, but nothing can cure chickens with bird flu. Culling is one of the most effective approaches, Koci said.
The Problem With Vaccination
Some politicians have suggested vaccinating chickens. There are a few options available, and the Trump Administration has given the conditional green light to one made by Zoetis.
Zoetis initially got a contract to create a bird flu vaccine for chickens from the USDA’s National Veterinary Stockpile in 2016. As with a human flu vaccine, the company has had to keep updating it to make sure it matches the virus strain in circulation.
It appears to be effective; the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service used it in 2023 to protect endangered California condors. But the commercial chicken industry isn’t so interested.
For one thing, the US is the second biggest exporter of poultry products in the world, but overseas trading partners won’t buy chickens vaccinated for bird flu
The World Trade Organization doesn’t forbid the sale of vaccinated birds outright, but other countries won’t buy them. The seller has to demonstrate that the birds are completely free of bird flu, and vaccines can mask the presence of the virus. Studies show that vaccines, just like human flu and COVID vaccines, can keep a chicken from developing severe disease, but they don’t totally prevent infections.
The National Chicken Council, the U.S. industry’s trade association, wrote to the Congressional Chicken Caucus recently to remind lawmakers that “vaccinating any poultry sector – egg layers, turkeys, broilers, or ducks – will jeopardize the entire export market for all U.S. poultry products.”
The council said that if farmers can’t trade overseas, the U.S. would face a potential $10 billion-plus annual economic loss, as well as significant harm to its poultry business.
Vaccination would also add expense. There is no aerosolized or waterborne vaccine, so workers would have to pick up each one of millions of chickens and vaccinate them individually.
Other countries have gone the vaccination route, and it seems to have helped. France started vaccinating millions of farmed ducks in 2023, along with biosecurity measures and enhanced surveillance. The number of outbreaks fell to 10 during the first six months of the campaign, compared with 315 over the same time period The Trump administration’s response
Trump Administration Response
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled a $1 billion plan last month to combat the outbreak, adding to roughly $2 billion already spent since 2022.
The plan includes $500 million to help farmers strengthen biosecurity measures, $400 million in additional aid for affected farms, $100 million for vaccine research and includes plans to import eggs from Turkey to help meet America’s demand.
When the outbreak started in 2022, many commercial farms stepped up biosecurity measures like isolating chickens from wild birds, keeping workers’ clothes and boots clean, and spraying disinfectants.
Under the Trump rollout, Rollins said the biosecurity funds will be used to further a pilot program that involved 150 separate poultry operations employing specific biosecurity measures. Of the 150 operations that implemented the pilot called Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, only one has seen avian flu.
“USDA will now provide this consulting service at no cost to all commercial egg-laying chicken farms,” Rollins said in the Journal piece. “We will also pay up to 75% of the cost to repair biosecurity vulnerabilities.”
Price Gouging Allegations
Some consumer advocates question whether the outbreak fully explains the price surge. Farm Action, which advocates for smaller farmers, points out that egg production is only down about 4% from last year despite the dramatic price increases.
“Dominant egg corporations are blaming avian flu for the price hikes that we’re seeing. But while the egg supply has fallen only slightly, these companies’ profits have soared,” said Angela Huffman, Farm Action’s president.
The largest publicly traded egg producer, Cal-Maine Foods, reported a $219 million profit in its most recent quarter, up from just $1.2 million before the outbreak began in early 2022.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called for an investigation.
Expansion Beyond Birds
The flu has also expanded into other animals including dairy cows, cats, dogs, marine and forest mammals such as skunks and dolphins.
These infections typically occur when animals consume infected birds or come into contact with contaminated environments.
The virus is still considered a low threat to humans, but as of press time, 70 people in the U.S. had been infected. Farm workers and people who have backyard flocks are at higher risk of infection, but scientists are concerned that the virus will spread further – and possibly adapt to spread between people.
