A poll out earlier this month offers a warning for presidential candidates hoping to tap into the A poll out earlier this month offers a warning for presidential candidates hoping to tap into the youth vote in 2024. After record youth turnout in the 2020 elections, fewer Americans ages 18 to 29 plan to vote in 2024.
According to the Harvard Poll, compared to the same period in the 2020 election cycle, young Americans “definitely” planning to vote in the next presidential election dropped eight percentage points – from 57% to 49%. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated 54.1% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in 2020, which had the highest youth turnout overall of any election in the 21st century.
The 2020 turnout for Americans 18-29 was about 50%, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
By the numbers:
Younger Black Americans saw a sharp decline, with 38% saying they will “definitely vote” next year, compared to 50% in 2019.
Hispanic Americans also had a steep drop, with 40% saying they will “definitely vote” in 2024, compared to 56% in 2019.
While general election polling a year out is not predictive, 66% of Democrats say they will “definitely vote” in 2024, compared to 68% who said the same in 2019.
56% of Republicans said they will “definitely vote,” a 10-point decrease from the fall of 2019.
Zoom in:
The poll also found that many young voters are skeptical about the leading 2024 candidates’ ability to handle key issues, such as climate change, health care, gun violence, Ukraine, public safety and the Israel-Hamas war.
“As the 2024 campaign season kicks into high gear, candidates up and down the ballot would be wise to embrace the opportunity to listen to – and re-engage this generation,” IOP Director Setti Warren said in a news release.
State of play:
Young voters, who are expected to comprise a significant part of the electorate next year, have voted solidly Democratic in recent elections. Strong turnout in 2020 and 2022 contributed to Democratic wins.
President Biden holds an 11-point lead over former President Trump in a hypothetical matchup among voters under 30, according to the poll.
When independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West — along with theoretical candidate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — are introduced, Biden’s lead shrinks.
Among all young Americans, Biden leads by four points in a hypothetical matchup between Biden (29%), Trump (25%), Kennedy (10%) West (3%) and Manchin (2%). 31% said that they didn’t know.
Between the lines:
Most young voters (69%) who support Biden over Trump said that their vote is more in “opposition to Donald Trump becoming president again” than “support for President Biden and his policies.”
Among young voters who said they are likely to back Trump, 65% said that their support is driven by loyalty to Trump, while 35% say it is in opposition of Biden’s policies.
Go deeper:
Dems are eying young voters for an edge in 2024.
