he Kansas Chamber invested heavily in conservative candidates in hopes of maintaining conservative control over the legislature, but their heavy investment netted few victories. Kansas Republicans voted for change, ousting many of the conservative Republican incumbents who supported major tax cuts to business and cuts in school funding.
The primary election reversed a trend from the past three election cycles where conservatives continued to gain seats and eventually control of both the House and the Senate.
In heavily Republican Kansas, the primary elections are often the most contested races with the advancing Republican expected to easily defeat their Democratic opponent. In the past, Republicans too often didn’t have a Democratic opponent in the general election, raising the importance of the Republican primaries even further. However this year, the Democrats were able to field a candidate in all Kansas Senate races and in almost all Kansas House Races.
In Kansas, Democrats will likely never have a majority in the legislature, the best that can be hoped for is a coalition majority composed of Democrats and moderate Republicans. This is the kind of coalition that existed in the legislature during Gov. Kathleen Sebelius’ administration. With enough conservative losses in the primary, combined with possible Democratic gains in the Novemeber general election, that type of coalition could be regained.
Political observers estimate moderates and Democrats would need to gain 10 to 15 seats in the 125 member House to gain governing control. The 40 member Kansas Senate would be much tougher to gain, with only eight elected Democrats and just a handful of moderate Republicans. Gaining a governing coalition would require wrangling 10 seats from the conservatives. Although the net gains needed for both the House and Senate are about the same, the task is much harder to accomplish in the Senate where the coalition would have to gain 25% of the seats versus the House where the gains needed amount to about than 10%.
How did the coalition do in the primaries?
The Kansas Chamber heavily supported Kansas Conservatives leading up the primaries and participated in what some called mudslinging. They invested heavily in mailers, and in some races the mailers and the tone of their outreach more often tore down their candidate’s opponent rather than highlighting the positives traits of their candidates. The Chamber also worked to unseat several moderate Republicans.
In all, the Chamber endorsed in 33 races and won only seven. In the Kanas House they failed in their attempt to oust three moderate incumbents. They supported conservatives in 13 races and won in only five of the races. It was a pretty rough day for Conservative incumbents with eight ousted.
In the Senate, the Kansas Chamber endorsed seven conservative candidates and won just two of the races. They worked to unseat two moderate Republicans, both of whom retained their seats. Three conservatives loss their races and two conservative incumbents endorsed by the chamber retained their seats.
While the eight losses in the Chamber endorsed races falls short of the number needed for the more moderate governing coalition, there are other races at play. For example, the 87th District race didn’t draw much attention. Mark Kahrs did not run again for the Wichita seat and the race between the two incumbents didn’t draw a lot of attention from PACS. The race featured a conservative against a moderate, and the moderate won. There were other seats across the state where the incumbent didn’t seek reelection and the results of those races will weight into the delicate balance.
In addition, it’s often difficult to tell a conservative from a moderate. For example, the Wichita Eagle reports seven conservative house members lost their seats, while our numbers show eight. We chose to identify conservatives based on their endorsements, with the Kansas Chamber usually endorsing the conservative candidate in a race. The PAC of the Kansas National Education Association, the state’s largest teacher’s union, typically endorsed moderate Republicans.
The final hope for building the moderate governing coalition will come during the November general election where moderate Democrats have the potential for taking out even more conservatives. The Democrats worked hard to find quality candidates to run in most races and their potential for success, especially with the level of frustration with current state fiscal woes.
A big loss for the conservatives, and an strong indication of the changing winds, was the loss by Kansas Senate Majority Leader Terry Bruce. Bruce, who represented a district that included the City of Hutchinson and Kingman and Reno Counties, was a big supporter of Gov. Brownback’s policies. He was defeated by Ed Berger, the recently retired president of Hutchinson Community College, who ran on a platform of fiscal reform and adequate school funding.
In Sedgwick County, conservative Republicans were able to hold onto their seats, but in Johnson County, conservatives didn’t fare well at all; six incumbent conservatives were ousted and just four retained their seats including African-American conservative Willie Dove whose predominately Leavenworth County District covers a small area of Johnson County.